In 2016 Donald Trump was lucky enough to run against the only candidate in history almost more unlikable than he was. Almost is an important qualifier because it’s worth noting, that somehow, despite record high unfavorable ratings, people still preferred Hillary Clinton to Donald Trump at the end of the day. Despite that, Donald Trump was able to cobble together just enough people in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to squeak out an electoral college victory. However, this time around, polling suggests things might not break in Donald Trump’s favor the same way they did in 2016.
First, a recent Fox News poll shows Donald Trump gets demolished by just about every other Democratic candidate.
Even against the lowest polling Democrat with the margin of error firmly on his side, Donald Trump still loses by 3%. Which is a pretty hefty loss.
Against stronger contenders like Bernie Sanders, the best Trump can muster is a 6% loss. And it should be noted, Bernie Sanders is the only candidate currently in the race who has run a national campaign and seen his favorabilities remain in tact. Joe Biden started the race the most favorable candidate, but that has quickly faded, putting Bernie Sanders in the lead.
If the conventional wisdom holds, basically every candidate’s favorability rating drops in the heat of a campaign. So this puts Bernie Sanders in the best position to beat Donald Trump because his favorability ratings are firmly in place. Additionally, his floor is the highest of all candidates. So when he does take a hit, as Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren have, it takes a lot more to put Donald Trump within striking distance.
Combine this with Bernie’s massive lead in grassroots support, donors, and the fact he’s well positioned to win in either Iowa and/or New Hampshire. Things start looking pretty good for Bernie. In fact, some might say the primary is the hard part. While Joe Biden’s favorability has dropped and Elizabeth Warren has experienced a polling bump, he’s still well positioned to run away with the primary once voting actually begins. And if he can do that, it seems beating Donald Trump will be a walk in the park in comparison.
The most favorable candidate in the country versus the most unfavorable. The math is pretty easy and Fox News showed, it puts Bernie Sanders up by at least 6 points. That’s an electoral landslide and given Bernie’s firm favorability numbers, it seems a likely outcome should he make it through the primary.